1. The Test of Fulfilled Predictions ^{3T. H. Jemison was one of the first to categorize these four tests in A Prophet Among You, (Mountain View, CA: Pacific Press Publishing Association, 1955), pages 100-112.}

Jeremiah’s contemporaries were instructed to use the benchmark of “fulfilled predictions” as one of the tests of a genuine prophet: “As for the prophet who prophesies of peace, when the word of the prophet comes to pass, the prophet will be known as one whom the Lord has truly sent” (Jeremiah 28:9). ^{4In this instance Jeremiah was using irony in speaking to the false prophet Hananiah. The principle, however, stands.}MOL 29.8

Making predictions, or foretelling, is only one aspect of a prophet’s work. In fact, it may be only a minor phase. We often think of Daniel and John the Revelator in terms of their prophecies. However, their work as God’s “forth-tellers” was even more important than being God’s “fore-tellers.” Both John the Baptist and Moses were “great” prophets, but for reasons other than their fulfilled prophecies.MOL 29.9

In contemplating “fulfilled predictions” we also must understand the principle of conditional prophecy. Jeremiah helps us to understand this principle, as he reports the Lord’s conversation with him: “The instant I speak concerning a nation and concerning a kingdom, to pluck up, to pull down, and to destroy it, if that nation against whom I have spoken turns from its evil, I will relent of the disaster that I thought to bring upon it. And the instant I speak concerning a nation and concerning a kingdom, to build and to plant it, if it does evil in My sight so that it does not obey My voice, then I will relent concerning the good with which I said I would benefit it” (Jeremiah 18:7-10).MOL 29.10

Conditional prophecy, or controlled uncertainty, is a Biblical principle applied to statements of a predictive nature that concern or involve the responses of human beings. Whenever an unfolding of events depends upon human choice, certain aspects of prophetic fulfillment are necessarily conditional.MOL 30.1

An unnamed prophet emphasized this principle to aging Eli: “Therefore the Lord God of Israel says: ‘I said indeed that your house and the house of your father would walk before Me forever.’ But now the Lord says: ‘Far be it from Me; for those who honor Me I will honor, and those who despise Me shall be lightly esteemed. Behold, the days are coming that I will cut off your arm and the arm of your father’s house, so that there will not be an old man in your house’” (1 Samuel 2:30, 31).MOL 30.2

Jonah had to learn this lesson of conditionality the hard way: “Then God saw their works, that they turned from their evil way; and God relented from the disaster that He had said He would bring upon them, and He did not do it” (Jonah 3:10).MOL 30.3

The experience of young king Josiah, though sad, is another example of conditional prophecy. He had led his people in a remarkable reformation (2 Chronicles 34). Because of his faithfulness, the Lord promised, “I will gather you to your fathers, and you shall be gathered to your grave in peace” (2 Chronicles 34:28). But Josiah did not die in peace, he died in battle! What went wrong? He did not obey God’s instruction. God did not give him orders to attack Egypt. In fact, the king of Egypt sent a special message to Josiah, emphasizing that Josiah’s God was directing Egypt in battle against Babylon: “God is on my side, so don’t oppose me, or he will destroy you” (2 Chronicles 35:21, TEV).MOL 30.4

Young Josiah should have obeyed God and listened to the confirming voice of Egypt’s king. But no, he disguised himself, led his army into the Battle of Carchemish (605 B.C.), and was killed. God’s promise that Josiah would die a peaceful death was conditional upon continual obedience. When faithful leaders go against God’s counsel, choosing to follow personal inclination, God does not save the headstrong from the consequences of their actions.MOL 30.5